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Hard-to-handicap geopolitical conflict never helps, even if it rarely serves as the key swing factor in a market trend. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year And then there was simply the elevated valuation and over-optimistic sentiment that had built up over that five-month, 28% rally that culminated at the end of March. Over the long span of time, about 40% of all 5% market pullbacks deepened into full 10% corrections. A 10%-ish correction from the S & P 500 high of 5254 would pull the index down below 4800, the former record high from early 2022, and so would be a test of the first-quarter breakout. Last week's 3% decline took the index back to Feb 21 and thereby closed the "Nvidia gap," the 100-point S & P 500 pop the day after Nvidia's blowout fourth-quarter earnings report.
Persons: Warren Pies, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Big Tech, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is going to be a choppy quarter, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss whether he expects more downside for stocks.
Persons: Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen Research
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBond market's biggest mover is the Fed's terminal rate, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research founder, and David Bahnsen, The Bahnsen Group CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Bond, Warren, David Bahnsen Organizations: 3Fourteen Research, Bahnsen
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 20, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Monday night, after the major averages took a breather from their rally. Month to date, the major U.S. stock benchmarks are on pace for their fifth straight month of gains. Despite some concerns that the market rally has crossed into overbought territory, investors still can't be underweight on equities as of now, according to 3Fourteen Research cofounder Warren Pies. Durable goods orders and the Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey will also provide insight on the health of the manufacturing sector.
Persons: Dow, Warren Pies, CNBC's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Richmond Locations: New York City . U.S, U.S, overbought
Take profits now from oil beta, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
  + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTake profits now from oil beta, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research Founder, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the market sentiment and today's pullback.
Persons: Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen
The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.
Persons: , Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America
The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.
Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are a lot of people who want in on this market, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action, if he thinks the bull market will continue on this path and more.
Persons: Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCan't make a case for a reccesion, Fed cuts could come in May, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Warren, David Zervos Organizations: Jefferies, 3Fourteen Research
Watch CNBC's full interview with Warren Pies and David Zervos
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Warren Pies and David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Warren Pies, David Zervos David Zervos, Warren Organizations: Jefferies, 3Fourteen Research
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's more path to victory with bonds over stocks, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss oil stocks moving lower after OPEC delays its meeting.
Persons: Warren
A steepening yield curve is when the spread between long- and short-term bond yields widens. Either the long-term yield rises faster than the short-term yield - a bear steepener - or the short-term yield is falling more - a bull steepener. Bear steepenings of the benchmark two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, when the curve is inverted, are rare. In some ways, a positive-sloping yield curve is the natural order of things. Graff reckons the bear steepening is almost over and the curve will struggle to get past -20 bps.
Persons: Warren Pies, Dario Perkins, Lombard's Perkins, Bond, Bill Gross, Goldman Sachs, Tom Graff, Graff, Jamie McGeever, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, 3Fourteen Research, TS Lombard, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, London reckons
If oil prices stay high — and especially, if they breach $100 a barrel — the companies are well positioned. However, should oil prices fall and debt levels continue to rise, some companies have boxed themselves into a corner with very generous dividends and share repurchase programs. At the same time, operating cash flow has been declining. "What we're looking at is companies trying to bridge a little gap while operating cash flow is going down," said Mark Young, senior analyst at Evaluate Energy. "Since the end of 2020, operating cash flow has been able to cover all capital spending, dividend payments and share buybacks by itself.
Persons: Mark Young, Young, Conoco Phillips, Noah Barrett, Warren, Barrett, We're, Matt Smith, Smith, Jason Mountford, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Mike Wirth, Mountford, unprofitably, there's, that's Organizations: Energy, CNBC, Civitas Resources, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Janus, Federal, Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research, Investors, Conocophillips, Devon Energy, Exxon, Organization of Petroleum, Kplgr, Bank of America, Citigroup Locations: U.S, Wall, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Chevron
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTraders 'need to be overweight energy for diversification purposes', says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research Co-Founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk oil prices and why he thinks prices could hit triple digits.
Persons: Warren Organizations: Traders, 3Fourteen Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors aren't being paid to bet on a soft landing, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesTom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the shaky start to September and their market expectations.
Persons: Warren, Tom Lee Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors, 3Fourteen Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Fundstrat's Tom Lee and 3Fourteen's Warren PiesTom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the shaky start to September and their market expectations.
Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 3Fourteen's Warren, Tom Lee, Warren Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors, 3Fourteen Research
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Nvidia is priced for a good decade, not just a good year', says 3Fourteen's Fernando VidalFernando Vidal, 3Fourteen Research Co-Founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss why he believes Nvidia is overvalued.
Persons: 3Fourteen's Fernando Vidal Fernando Vidal Organizations: Nvidia, 3Fourteen Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with 3Fourteen's Warren Pies and Ariel's Charlie BobrinskoyWarren Pies, 3fourteen Research Co-Founder and Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Head of Investment Group, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss markets, bonds and inflation.
Persons: 3Fourteen's Warren, Charlie Bobrinskoy Warren, Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Organizations: 3fourteen Research, of Investment Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email3Fourteen's Warren Pies says long bonds look like least attractive assets in this environmentWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research Co-Founder and Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Head of Investment Group, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss markets, bonds and inflation.
Persons: Warren Pies, Warren, Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Organizations: 3Fourteen Research, of Investment Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAnnandale's George Seay says he'd invest capital in these three sectorsWarren Pies, 3fourteen Research Co-Founder and George Seay, Annandale Capital Founder, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss recession likelihood and market outlook.
Persons: George Seay Organizations: Warren, 3fourteen Research, Annandale Capital Locations: Annandale
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with 3fourteen's Warren Pies and Annandale's George SeayWarren Pies, 3fourteen Research Co-Founder and George Seay, Annandale Capital Founder, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss recession likelihood and market outlook.
Persons: 3fourteen's Warren, Annandale's George Seay Warren, George Seay Organizations: 3fourteen Research, Annandale Capital Locations: Annandale
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe big recession trade is getting priced out of the market, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesDavid Lefkowitz, UBS Wealth Management, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss today's market rally, the state of the U.S. economy, and the bond market.
Persons: Warren Pies David Lefkowitz, Warren Organizations: UBS Wealth Management, 3Fourteen Research Locations: U.S
Watch CNBC's full interview with David Lefkowitz and Warren Pies
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with David Lefkowitz and Warren PiesDavid Lefkowitz, UBS Wealth Management, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss today's market rally, the state of the U.S. economy, and the bond market.
Persons: David Lefkowitz, Warren Pies David Lefkowitz, Warren Organizations: UBS Wealth Management, 3Fourteen Research Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC+ cut is a buying opportunity for investors, says 3fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss oil stocks as the sector sees its best day in nearly a year.
.SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year So, are equities under-reacting to a badly contorted bond market, a potentially trapped Fed and faltering economy? This has allowed the S & P 500 excluding financials and real estate to outperform the headline index by a couple percentage points year to date. Microsoft alone has added some $240 billion in market value since that date, more than the entire market cap of the S & P 500 regional-banks sub sector. Only about 60% of the S & P 500 members are positive over the past six months even as the index is up 7.5%, a loss of internal energy. The flash S & P Global U.S. Composite PMI for March, reported Friday, was up to 53.3 from 50.1 the prior month and above the 49.5 forecast, a reading S & P says is consistent with around a 2% real GDP pace.
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